External resources#
General links / resources#
IPCC reports:
Summary for Policymakers, IPCC AR6 WG2: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Full report, IPCC AR6 WG2: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Climate policy:
Books:
Learning python:
Here are our favourite resources for Python beginners in STEM:
There is an excellent Python tutorial provided by the Software Carpentry. It’s based on a real data analysis and I strongly recommend it.
Chapter 1 from the Scientific Python lectures is also excellent.
Finally, Fabien’s own classes provide some resources as well, but they are more adapted to a classroom than self-study: beginner, advanced.
Learning climate analysis with python:
The excellent resources by Climatematch inspired some of my notes:
Project Pythia contains fantastic resources:
Interactive climate dashboards:
Met Office Climate Data Portal (see local authority risk assessment)
Further lecture notes by Fabien:
💻 Introduction to Python Programming (undergraduate level)
🧑💻 Scientific Programming in Python (postgraduate level)
Miscellanea
The excellent episode of “Cautionary Tales” about how risk mitigation measures can go wrong: BBC iPlayer, youtube
Art: Landscape Of Change by Jill Pelto
By Lecture#
Lecture 1 (Introduction)
Lecture 2 (Climate data)
Videos
Web resource about climate datasets, their strengths and limitations: Climate Data Guide, in particular:
Lecture 3 (Statistical methods)
Book: Statistical Methods for Climate Scientists, Cambridge University Press 🔗 https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108659055 Recommended for their broad coverage, the code examples (need to be translated to Python – easy enough with AI), and the excellent introductions before the heavy statistics. 📘 PDF available from Uni Bristol.
Book: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Daniel S. Wilks 🔗 https://www.sciencedirect.com/book/9780128158234/statistical-methods-in-the-atmospheric-sciences Recommended as “the” reference textbook — more complete but also a bit more complex than the above. 📘 PDF available from Uni Bristol.
Report: Bristol Local Flood Risk Management Strategy 🔗 https://democracy.bristol.gov.uk/documents/s82208/Bristol%20Local%20Flood%20Risk%20Management%20Strategy%202023.pdf A real-world policy view on flood risk management.
Lecture 4 (Attribution)
Explainer: Why scientists think 100% of global warming is due to humans 🔗 https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-scientists-think-100-of-global-warming-is-due-to-humans/ A clear and accessible summary of how scientists know that essentially all observed global warming since the mid-20th century is due to human influence.
Q&A: The evolving science of ‘extreme weather attribution’ 🔗 https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-the-evolving-science-of-extreme-weather-attribution/ An excellent introduction to how scientists determine whether extreme events like floods or heatwaves were influenced by climate change.
Paper: Attributing Extreme Events to Climate Change: A New Frontier in a Warming World 📄 Swain, D. L., Singh, D., Touma, D., & Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2020), One Earth, 2(6), 522–527 🔗 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.05.011 A short but impactful peer-reviewed paper summarising advances in the science and communication of event attribution.
Report Chapter: IPCC AR6 WG1 – Chapter 12: Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment 🔗 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-12/ Essential reading for understanding how global climate projections are used in regional risk assessments and adaptation planning.
Case Study: Pakistan 2022 Floods – Attribution Report 🔗 https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/Pakistan-floods-scientific-report.pdf A real-world application of attribution science, assessing the role of climate change in one of the most devastating flood events in recent history.
Lecture 5 (Sea level rise)
Report Chapter: IPCC AR6 WG1 – Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change 🔗 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-9/ The core reference for this lecture: the observed sea level budget, each of the contributors, and how the projections and their uncertainty ranges are constructed.
Report Chapter: IPCC SROCC – Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities 🔗 https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-4-sea-level-rise-and-implications-for-low-lying-islands-coasts-and-communities/ Puts the physical science next to the exposure and adaptation side, and is the source of the contributor breakdown shown in class.
Paper: The causes of sea-level rise since 1900 📄 Frederikse, T., Landerer, F., Caron, L., et al. (2020), Nature, 584, 393–397 🔗 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2591-3 Closes the twentieth-century sea level budget, and a good example of how independent observational estimates are reconciled into a single number.
Papers: Mass balance of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets (IMBIE) 📄 The IMBIE Team (2018), Nature, 558, 219–222 (Antarctica) and (2020), Nature, 579, 233–239 (Greenland) 🔗 Antarctica: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y 🔗 Greenland: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2 The community reconciliation exercises behind the ice sheet mass loss curves shown in the lecture — worth reading for the method as much as the result.
Paper: The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling 📄 Pattyn, F. (2018), Nature Communications, 9, 2728 🔗 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05003-z Background for the marine ice sheet instability (MISI) and marine ice cliff instability (MICI) discussion, and why they dominate the high end of the projections.
Paper: Brief communication: Sea-level projections, adaptation planning, and actionable science 📄 Lipscomb, W. H., Behar, D. & Morrison, M. A. (2025), The Cryosphere, 19, 793–803 🔗 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-793-2025 A recent and very readable statement of the high-end scenario controversy: how much weight should low-likelihood, high-impact storylines carry in adaptation planning?
Report: UKCP18 Marine Report (Palmer et al., 2018) 🔗 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/ukcp18/science-reports/UKCP18-Marine-report.pdf The source of the UK sea level projections used in the national risk assessment, and of the point that the spatial variation across the UK is as large as the signal itself.
Case Study: Coastal Adaptation Planning in Fairbourne, Wales: Lessons for Climate Change Adaptation 📄 Buser, M. (2020), Planning Practice & Research, 35(2), 127–147 🔗 https://doi.org/10.1080/02697459.2019.1696145 What happens to a community when “no active intervention” becomes the official shoreline management position — the case discussed at the end of the lecture.
Lecture 6 (Exposure and vulnerability)
Report Chapter: IPCC SREX (2012) – Chapter 2: Determinants of Risk: Exposure and Vulnerability 🔗 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/managing-the-risks-of-extreme-events-and-disasters-to-advance-climate-change-adaptation/ The best starting point for this half of the unit. Its reference list is also a route into the primary literature on exposure and vulnerability for a wide range of regions and hazards.
Paper: Updated projections of UK heat-related mortality using policy-relevant global warming levels and socio-economic scenarios 📄 Jenkins, K., Kennedy-Asser, A., Andrews, O. & Lo, Y. T. E. (2022), Environmental Research Letters, 17, 114036 🔗 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9cf3 The set reading for this workshop: a worked example of combining a hazard projection with socio-economic exposure and vulnerability data.
Paper: Projected risks associated with heat stress in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) 📄 Kennedy-Asser, A. T., Owen, G., Griffith, G. J., et al. (2022), Environmental Research Letters, 17, 034024 🔗 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac541a Builds a UK heat stress vulnerability index from deprivation and demographic indicators — a concrete template for the vulnerability component of your own project.
Interactive tool: UK Heat Stress Vulnerability App 🔗 https://akaresearch.shinyapps.io/heatstressvulnerability/ Companion to Kennedy-Asser et al. (2022). Change the weightings and watch the resulting UK risk map change: a quick way to feel how sensitive a vulnerability index is to its own assumptions.
Paper: Empirical evidence of declining global vulnerability to climate-related hazards 📄 Formetta, G. & Feyen, L. (2019), Global Environmental Change, 57, 101920 🔗 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.05.004 Vulnerability is not a constant: mortality and economic loss per exposed person have fallen substantially over time, which matters a great deal when projecting impacts forward.
Paper: Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation 📄 Jongman, B., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., et al. (2015), PNAS, 112(18) 🔗 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1414439112 The same argument for river flooding specifically, and directly relevant to the flood workshop.
Data: WorldPop 🔗 https://www.worldpop.org Gridded population estimates, used in the flood workshop and in Regridding WorldPop data to your region of choice. The most common way to put an exposure layer on top of a hazard map.
Data: UK Climate Resilience Programme (UK-SSPs) 🔗 https://www.ukclimateresilience.org UK-specific socio-economic pathways and supporting datasets — useful if your project needs exposure and vulnerability to change into the future, not just the hazard.
Lecture 7 (Adaptation)
Paper: A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change 📄 Berrang-Ford, L., Siders, A. R., Lesnikowski, A., et al. (2021), Nature Climate Change, 11, 989–1000 🔗 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01170-y What the evidence base for adaptation actually contains, and the finding that documented adaptation is overwhelmingly about planning rather than implementation.
Paper: From incremental to transformative adaptation in individual responses to climate-exacerbated hazards 📄 Wilson, R. S., Herziger, A., Hamilton, M. & Brooks, J. S. (2020), Nature Climate Change, 10, 200–208 🔗 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0691-6 On the distinction between incremental and transformative adaptation, and why a focus on short-term risk reduction can crowd the latter out.
Report: Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk (CCRA3) 🔗 https://www.ukclimaterisk.org/ The Committee on Climate Change’s technical assessment underpinning the statutory five-yearly UK risk assessment required by the Climate Change Act 2008.
Report: Third National Adaptation Programme (NAP3), 2023–2028 🔗 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/third-national-adaptation-programme-nap3 The UK government’s formal response to the CCRA — useful for seeing how a risk assessment does or does not turn into policy.
Report: Progress in adapting to climate change – 2023 Report to Parliament 🔗 https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/progress-in-adapting-to-climate-change-2023-report-to-parliament/ The CCC’s own verdict that the second National Adaptation Programme has not adequately prepared the UK: a good example of independent scrutiny of adaptation policy.
Report: Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2023 📄 Climate Policy Initiative (2023) 🔗 https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2023/ Where climate finance actually flows, and how little of it reaches adaptation relative to need — the source of the figures used in the lecture.
Explainer: Loss and Damage 🔗 https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/workstreams/loss-and-damage Background on the fund agreed at COP27 and capitalised from COP28 onwards, covering the risks that fall beyond both mitigation and adaptation.